- by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (March 29)
I am pleased to read that it looks like there is near-consensus in the medical community that a “first China, then South Korea” (or, “Sledgehammer then Scalpel”) approach is the paradigm to tamp down the pandemic.
Over 50% of the US population is now under lockdown, and it may be beginning to break the band of exponential growth.
Based on South Korea’s experience, a ratio of 15:1 in total tests to results showing infection is the level where there can be some confidence that the infections have been contained. I pointed that out to Bill McBride a week ago, and he is now including that in his daily testing graphs. Testing in the past 4 days has plateaued (not good) and is not keeping pace at all with the growth in new infections.
The above three most important metrics are starred (***) below.
Comparison of rates of increase in documented infections vs. testing
Result: The rate of testing is failing to improve and is far, far below what is needed, which is probably now at least 200,000/day. Note this target number is also increasing exponentially as we try to chase the number of exponentially increasing infections.