On the weekly CRB chart, notice the following:
-- Prices are below all the SMAs
-- The 10 and 20 week SMA are nose-diving
-- The 10 week SMA has moved through the 50 week SMA
-- The 50 week SMA is neutral. It will turn negative soon so long as prices remain on their current trajectory
On the daily chart, notice the following:
-- Prices are below all the SMAs
-- Prices have continually moved through previously established lows to make newer, lower lows
-- The SMAs are all moving lower
-- The shorter SMAs are below the longer SMAs
-- The 20 day SMA has provided strong upside resistance for the average.
Bottom line: this chart has become extremely bearish over the last few months. There are no bullish indicators. I would expect relief rallies to occur -- rallies where traders come in because they think prices are overly cheap -- but I would not expect a sustained rally at this point.
