Here is a graph of the year-over-year percent change in consumer spending in chained 2000 dollars. DG = Durable Goods, NDG = Non-Durable Goods and Service = service (duh). Pay particular attention to the first two areas of change. They represent the first year over year levels of consumption expenditures coming out of a recession. Here is the point of this graph. Consumption expenditures are still strong on a year-over-year basis. Until we start seeing YOY comparisons like those in the first few quarters after the recession the economy should be doing OK.
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There is a fun survey of Tooth Fairy giving that fairly closely mirrors the overall economy. It's in the newest copy of Business Week and it's down 15% in 2007. Wallets are closing up? Strange,
Anyway, PCE real consumption has been very slow in Feb and March. March in particular sets us up for a weak consumption 2nd quarter number.
Links to both the Business Week story and the Dentists that took the survey here.
http://pbp.typepad.com/economy/2007/05/tooth_fairy_giv.html
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