The Mortgage Bankers Association, in its quarterly snapshot of the mortgage market released Wednesday, reported that the percentage of mortgage payments that were 30 or more days past due for all loans tracked jumped to 4.67 percent in the July-to-September quarter.
That marked a sharp rise from the second quarter's delinquency rate of 4.39 percent and was the worst showing since the final quarter of last year, when delinquent payments climbed to a 2 1/2-year high in the aftermath of the devastating Gulf Coast hurricanes.
These numbers are coming off of some very low readings. So while the jump is important to note, it's also important to remember where we are in the cycle. That being said...
Delinquency rates in the third quarter were considerably higher for "subprime" borrowers -- people with weaker credit records who are considered higher risks -- especially those who have adjustable-rate mortgages.
Subprime borrowers had a delinquency rate of 12.56 percent in the third quarter, the highest in more than three years. The delinquency rate for these borrowers holding adjustable-rate mortgages was even higher -- at 13.22 percent in the third quarter, also the worst reading in more than three years.
Those are some high numbers. What's really important to remember is next year between $700 billion and $1 trillion (depending on which news source you base the estimate on) of ARMS will reset -- most a higher rate. That means going into next year the subprime market could experience some really ugly developments.
8 comments:
Is it broken down anywhere by geography? What states/regions might be hit hardest by foreclosures?
I would guess California and Florida would top the list. Colorado has to be in there as well.
Lots of subprime lenders have been closing up shop lately, including one in which Merrill had a big interest.
If they are closing down this early in the process you have to think it has the potential to get ugly.
You see a lot of anecdotal stories at housingbubbleblog about people who bought a house with an adjustable subprime and have no way out.
Redfish --
It's just going to get worse from here.
Redfish- there is a way out for them it’s called default which more and more are deciding to choose.
I agree bonddad it will get worse a lot worse before it gets better.
First in the USA and then the debt tidal wave will crash throughout the world to all the economies that have followed the USA method of a debt driven economy (which is driven by the poor). The question is how poor does the vast majority have to become before they stop paying?
More and more analysts say it can not be halted by any artificial stimulators, but only prepared for.
It can be fixed though in my opinion, with a distribution of the wealth back to a more equal economy, but like I said before social mobility is dead and greed is in, to an extent never before seen.
What happen to cash is king!!
Canada hasn't been hit as hard yet..but the US definitely has.
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