Over the last few months, the durable goods numbers have printed some very wide results. Let's look at the data to make sense of what we're seeing:
Above is a table from the latest report. The new orders numbers have been all over the place: we see a 3.9% increase followed by an 8.1% decrease followed by a .1% increase. So -- what's really going on?
I still think the data ex-transportation is really the best number to look at. And in that category we see that orders ex-transportation increased .1%, decreased .5% and then decreased .1%. These data points tell us that transportation orders are responsible for a tremendous amount of statistical noise.