One-third of U.S. homeowners who sold their property in the 12 months through September lost money as foreclosures depressed prices and more Americans became unemployed in a weakening economy, Zillow.com reported.
Home values fell 9.7 percent in the third quarter, the seventh consecutive decline, to a median $202,966, Seattle-based Zillow, a seller of real estate data, said in a report today. One in seven homeowners had negative equity, or owed more on their mortgages than their houses were worth.
``It's clear we are at a unique point in history,'' Stan Humphries, Zillow's vice president of data and analytics, said in a statement. ``We've had seven consecutive quarters of decline, and we expect that to continue until at least the middle of next year. Most markets are still seeing five-year annualized returns, but we will see more markets slip into flat or negative long-term change as the economy continues to suffer.''
Remember the basic problems in the housing market:
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Supply is high from an absolute perspective, and
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From a months of supply at the current sales pace perspective.
Lending standards are tightening:
In the current survey, large net fractions of domestic institutions reported having continued to tighten their lending standards and terms on all major loan categories over the previous three months. The net percentages of respondents that reported tightening standards increased relative to the July survey for both C&I and commercial real estate loans, as did the fractions reporting tightening for all price and nonprice terms on C&I loans. Considerable net fractions of foreign institutions also tightened credit standards and terms on loans to businesses over the past three months. Large fractions of domestic banks reported tightening standards on loans to households over the same period. Demand for loans from both businesses and households at domestic institutions continued to weaken, on net, over the past three months.
As a result, prices are dropping:
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With employment losses accelerating and the stock market in turmoil I don't think this will change anytime soon.
5 comments:
Oh we're far from bottom. You still have that chart on the Alt - A loans?
Here's a weird idea:
We have issues with public housing projects--not enough space, poorly maintained, in "dead" parts of town, etc.
At the same time, we have too many houses for sale, many of which may soon be owned by the fed govt.
It seems like HUD could start a project to move families out of public housing projects into government repossessed homes. The families benefit by moving into an actual neighborhood, the neighborhood benefits by not having empty houses driving property values further down, the government benefits from using the resources they paid for...
Dear Hale,
You write a good blog; Thank you.
"Demand" for housing is down but the "need" remains with us.
Funding for our bailout can best come from "revenue enhancement" measures: retroactive war profits taxes, luxury, substantially increased funding of the IRS who are after all "the people's representatives", and a serious "Wealth Tax". Now the latter would activate the GOP's base.
Keep up the good work. (8~>)
Even today most families who are upside down would like to stay in their home if they can … Well they can. Virtually all loans have modification clauses. My understanding is virtually all securitized instruments that parceled out the loans have clauses for both modification and foreclosure. So let’s make use of the modification clause instead of the foreclosure clause and do it across the board.
DO THIS FIRST, fix the adjustable loans , THEN THE REST CAN FOLLOW …
1. Stop all foreclosure actions nationwide
2. Convert all adjustable loans to 30 to 40 yr fixed rate
a. Interest rate to be 4.75% for owner-occupied
c. Interest rate to be 5.0% for non-owner-occupied
d. An incentive interest rate reduction of .25% to be given if the Borrower pays off all amounts in arrears or reduces their loan balance by 5% of its original amount, whichever is less
3. Permit a one time retirement fund withdrawal to provide funds for pay-off / pay-down
4. Homeowners must “Opt-in” in writing
a. Borrowers who have stopped making payments MUST make a partial payment, which the lender MUST accept.
b. Loans must stay current.
5. Within 60 days the Lenders will receive a NET INFLUX OF CASH THROUGH PAYDOWN OF LOANS / AND BACK PAYMENTS of approximately $39,000,000,000 … and that doesn’t count any funds from those whose loans have not reset yet (potentially $300,000,000,000 in pay-downs).
6. Within 60 days the modifications can be in place and generating approximately $6.6 billion per month
7. Cost to Taxpayers close to $0000
Another thought … If most of the loans get fixed, the supply of homes for sale with depressed prices will go down, the market can normalize and then go fix the rest of the things that are wrong.
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