Above is a 7 year chart. It shows the last last rally completely. Notice the following:
-- About 87% of the increase in value (85 to 155) is now gone with the market trading at 93.91. In other words, the rally has been effectively wiped off the books.
-- The market formed a double top in 2007
-- The market has clearly broken all upward trend lines.
Above is a 1-year chart. The most important aspect of this chart is the severity of the sell-off over the last 2 months. That's a big drop.
On the daily chart notice the following:
-- The shorter SMAs are moving into a more neutral position. The 10 day SMA actually increased recently and the 20 day SMAs degree of downward movement is decreasing.
-- Prices have fluctuated around the 10 and 20 day SMA for the last week or so.
-- Prices are still clearly within a range
-- A triangle pattern clearly exists
Now, let's consider the macro economic environment right now. We have a new president. The market is waiting to see what he will do. We've had coordinated action from other countries to stem the tide of the credit crunch. There is talk of a second fiscal stimulus bill. In other words the people who can take action are doing so. Also remember the employment is typically a lagging. That means that while Friday's employment report was terrible it could be signaling the beginning of the end to he contraction.
7 comments:
Youre a dreamer...this chart is bear market trap only nothing more.
Beginning of the end of the "employment contraction". Its not even the end of the beginning.
You need to get out in the real world dude.
are you out of your fucking mind??? good, you put your money in the market...oh ya, you can't! it'sdall been spent by Paulson to save AIG. you're a moron.
You have good company in thinking we are in the bottoming process. Barry at the Big Picture, for one. Me, I just watch the market, don't play. Retired, conservative places for our money. We didn't show much for the big ride up, but we sure haven't be killed by the ride down either. We have as much in our investiments today as we did when we retired in 1999, and we have drawn out money to live on.
JWC
Bonddad,
This is certainly an unusually bold unequivocal and uncharacteristic of you prediction that will be tested unequivocally in the near future. You have become a handicapper instead of an analysis. You have made the game more interesting for me.
What I find most interesting is that it is based essentially on chart characteristics.
Your reference to Obama is, if I may say to respectfully, sad. As are the other so called “macro variables” that you purport to be predictors.
You have also become a journalist. These are the type of things one hears on CNBC, etc. I have come to expect better of you. But then again - now you have a tip jar.
Best
Tom
I see this consolidation as a prelude to another drop.
Why would we be at a bottom now? The driving force behind the economy (consumer's wages) has been hollowed out. Instead of increasing wages, the economy was running on increasing debt. Until wages start going up again, we're nowhere near any kind of recovery.
Government spending is going to be the only way to lift this economy out if its recession, but where will that money come from? It would have to be borrowed, which means driving the economy even deeper into debt. Is that even feasible? Who is going to lend us the money? Our trading partners? Where are they going to get it from?
China has a $1 trillion surplus, even assuming that they'd be willing to lend it to us, would it even be enough? Look at what the current $1 trillion "stimulus" has achieved. Yes, the Wall Street rescue is a stimulus: it has injected badly needed capital into the economy.
When the dust settles, the US is going to face a very stark choice: an extended depression or devaluation of the dollar. The only way to lift the US out of this incipient depression is by printing trillions of dollars to feed public works programs. It's either that or wait until it really does bottom.
Wow, I was going to point out that one thing on the chart you didn't mention was volume. I expect, but don't count on, a lengthy period of very low volume and low volatility to indicate that a bottom has been put in. There is no indication on the charts that has even started to happen.
However, the pessimistic comments on this post, while admitedly a timy sample, could indicate we are near a bottom.
Keep up the good work.
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