Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Even Though Commodities Are Dropping...

From Bloomberg:

The world must find an extra 64 million barrels a day of oil production by 2030, equivalent to replacing Kuwait's output every year, to meet demand growth and counter the decline of existing fields, the International Energy Agency said.

The agency, an adviser to 28 nations, forecasts global oil demand will rise by 1 percent a year through 2030, while the output decline at existing fields will accelerate to 8.6 percent from 6.7 percent. There must be ``adequate and timely'' investment in global oil output for supplies to suffice, the Paris-based IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook published today.

``There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil-supply crunch'' by 2015 as the decline in output from mature oilfields speeds up, the Paris-based adviser said. ``The gap now evident between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010.''

An additional 64 million barrels a day of additional production must be bought on stream between 2007 and 2030, the group said. That is about 2.78 million barrels a day every year. Kuwait currently produces about 2.6 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg estimates.

Bottom line: We're in a bull market sell-off right now.