Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Today's Markets

Guess what? Oil hit another record today. And that will probably lead to a lower number of Americans driving over memorial day weekend. American Airlines announced they would be cutting jobs and charging for the first bag. We also learned the Fed is lowering it's growth forecast for the economy.

In market land, we had some really big developments.

Notice the QQQQs have been in a rally since March 17. The QQQQs have led the market higher.

On the 1 month chart, notice the following:

-- Prices moved through the 10 and 20 day SMAs today

-- Prices dropped on heavy volume

-- Prices moved through the long-term support line started on March 17

-- Prices are right at the 200 day SMA

On the SPYS first notice there are two possible trend lines. This is because there are three data points which I think are outliers of the real trend, but to be complete I added a trend line below these points.

On the one month SPY chart, notice the following:

-- Prices moved through th 10 and 20 day SMAs

-- Prices moved through both trend lines. In other words, it doesn't matter which one you think is accurate; prices moved through them.

-- Prices were rebuffed from the 200 day SMA

Both the QQQQs and SPYs fell on heavy volume

The main thing to keep an eye on is the QQQQs. They have pulled the market higher for the last few months. If they move through the 200 day SMA, we've got a big problem.