- by New Deal democrat
As of this week, initial claims continue to be very close to their expansion lows. The 4 week moving average of claims as of this morning is 212,500, only 11,000, or 5.3%, above the lowest reading this expansion:
On a YoY% change basis, the 4 week average is 0.6% higher than one year ago:
But September claims so far are running -5000 less than the full month of September 2018.
The less volatile 4 week average of continuing claims is also running -1.3% below where it was a year ago:
Initial claims continue to be an important positive in the short term forecast. If a recession doesn’t happen within the next 6 months, it is hard to imagine it happening at all through 2020 (with usual caveat: *IF* the economy is left to its own devices). And initial claims increasingly suggest that a downturn will not happen within that 6 month window.