Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

Considering the news out of Italy yesterday, let's start with the Italian market.

The weekly chart (top chart) places the overall situation in macro-perspective.  After selling off from 19 to 10 over a year-long period, prices have since rebounded to key Fib levels, where they have remained.  The daily chart (bottom chart) shows that prices rallied starting in the end of July to mid-September, where they have been consolidating sideways since.  Notice how prices are using the 200 day EMA as technical support on this chart.

After breaking a rally in mid-September, oil sold off in a disciplined, downward sloping channel.  PRices broke this trend in mid-November, but have had a difficult time rallying, finding resistance at the 50 day EMA.  So long as prices are below the 200 day EMA, and the world economies in general are slowing, it's difficult seeing this market maintaining any momentum, outside of a major geopolitical event.

After breaking support at the 122 level, the yen has solidified its losses in a consolidation between 118.5 and 120 for the last few weeks.  The buy-signal from the MACD indicates that a counter-rally wouldn't be surprising here, with an upside price target of 122.