Thursday, August 23, 2012
Morning Market Analysis
The entire grains complex is still at elevated levels. Corn (top chart) broke through resistance, but printed a hanging man bar yesterday (which many traders take as a reversal pattern). Soybeans (middle chart) has a similar chart to corn, although there were a few days of pretty solid gains. Wheat (bottom chart) is still in a downward sloping pennant pattern.
The reason for these high prices is the worst drought conditions since the late 1980s.
The longer term chart of the British market still shows a sideways consolidation pattern in play. Prices are still a bit above the 200 week EMA with a rising MACD. But the CMF shows declining market participation. Also note the declining volume as prices have rallied over the last few weeks.
Last week I noted that the Spanish market may be making a bottom, based on the possibility of a classic double-bottom pattern. Now the market has rallied from its bottom. , moving through resistance around the 25 price level. However, this is more of a technical bounce than anything else.
In the same post, I noted the Italian market was in a similar situation, although I wasn't as confident with the overall pattern. Well, it, too, has rebounded in a similar manner.