Thursday, August 16, 2012
Morning Market Analysis: Long-Term Europe Edition
The weekly Spanish chart shows the market may be making a bottom. First, notice the depth of the sell-off; prices moved from 40 to about 21 for a drop of almost 50%. However, prices have twice attempted to sell-off to the 20/21 area. Also note the first sell-off was done on much higher volume than the second.
The Italian market is in a similar situation as the Spanish market, but the above chart has a less clear double bottom signal. There is a heavier volume picture, but it's not as clear-cut as the Spanish market.
The weekly chart of the British market shows that -- despite three quarters of contraction -- the market is actually consolidating in an ascending triangle pattern. While the British economy is weak (they've had three quarters of contraction), it has benefited from capital inflows as a result of its haven status.
The weekly chart of the French market shows that prices have been consolidating in a sideways pattern for nearly a year.
The weekly German chart has no pattern. However, prices are right at the 200 day EMA and are in the middle of a multi-month rally.