Thursday, April 19, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

The 60 minute SPY chart shows the most recent price action in the best detail. At the beginning of the month, we see prices drop from 142.25 to 135.75 -- which is only a drop of about 5%.  Since then, prices have been moving higher in a slightly upward sloping channel.  They are currently at the 50% Fib level.

The daily chart shows the action in a wider detail.  Prices are floating around price price levels established at the end of February.  However, notice the declining momentum and weakening volume indicators. 

On the weekly chart, we see that prices have broken through key resistance areas (right around 135), and are now at the 10 week EMA.  What's important to note is the Bollinger Bank Width (the lowest graph) which shows that prices are in a period of increased volatility.

Right now, the most logical price target for the SPYs is 135.  The top chart shows that prices are having a difficult time making technical higher levels and are currently mired at Fib levels.  The daily and weekly chart confirm this analysis., as they show prices making a counter-trend rally on declining or weakening momentum.

The weekly gold chart is interesting.  Prices have broken the trend line started in early 2010.  But, we haven't seen a big downward move.  Instead, prices are moving slightly lower using the 50 week EMA as technical support.  However, the shorter EMAs are both declining.