Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Morning Market

At the beginning of this week, I noted the markets were in a risk on trade posture; money was flowing into equities and out of treasuries.  For the last few days, we've seen this trend halt and tread water.  Both equities and treasuries are consolidated at the top and the bottom of their recent trade activity, respectively.  Consider the charts below:


The SPY's have been consolidating between 119 and 122.5 for the last four days.


The QQQs have been consolidating between 56.75 and 58.


The IEFS have been consolidating between 102.2 and 103.5.


The TLTs have been consolidating between 113.5 and 116.5.

So -- what's going on here?  The risk on trade was heavily influenced by the perception that the EU was getting their basic problem under control.  However, yesterday Germany announced that the upcoming meeting wouldn't solve the problem, so now we're back to wondering what exactly is going to happen on the continent.  However, there is also a fair amount of momentum built into the market right now, so there isn't a reason to sell yet.