The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in October. The general business conditions index remained negative and, at -8.5, was little changed. The new orders index hovered around zero, indicating that orders were flat, while the shipments index rose above zero to 5.3. The inventories index stayed below zero, a sign that inventories declined. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received fell, but remained positive, suggesting that price increases moderated. The index for number of employees rose several points but was at a relatively low level of 3.4, while the average workweek index was negative for a fifth consecutive month. The future general business conditions index dropped six points to 6.7, its lowest level since early 2009, while future indexes for prices paid and prices received declined.
The good news is this hasn't gotten much worse. The bad news, the index has been hovering below the 0 line for the last few months, and there is little evidence we'll see a strong pop in the next month, or maybe through the end of the year. None of these are good developments, especially considering that manufacturing was a primary driver of the expansion.
