Thursday, October 20, 2011

Morning Market

Yesterday, I noted the markets were continuing in their period of consolidation -- a pattern which continued throughout yesterday's trade.  Notice that equities are still consolidating after a rally and treasuries are consolidating after a sell-off.

Let's take a look at some of the daily charts.

Prices are consolidating above the 50 day EMA.  At one point yesterday they even hit the 200 day EMA only to move lower.  The 10 day EMA has crossed above the 50 and the 20 is nearing that point.  All three shorter EMAs are moving higher.  This chart is turning more and more bullish, but to really confirm that statement we need to move about the 200 day EMA on decent volume.

Both the A/D and CMF indicate money is flowing into the market, but not at a really high rate.  The MACD tells us that momentum is on the bulls side.  Also note the MACD has crossed about "0" -- another positive development.

In contrast, the 7-10 year treasury market, is consolidating around the 50 day EMA. Both the 10 and 20 day EMAs are moving lower, but we haven't seen a bearish cross yet.  Also note the angle of decent for the shorter EMAs is less than desired.

While we have seen a huge shift in momentum, we aren't seeing a huge move out of the market from a volume perspective -- which is very interesting, especially considering the drop we've seen in prices.

While we can talk about ideal reversals, we're not going to see the perfect reversal ever.  What's interesting here is the lack of volume confirmation on both sides; volume moving into equities is weaker than desired and volume moving out of the treasury market is weaker than desired.  This tells me ultimately that this might not be a true reversal after all.