Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Morning Market




Yesterday, I noted that with equities moving beyond the 50 day EMA in some cases, the next stop would be the 200 day EMA, although a sell-off to the EMAs would not be unheard of.   That appears to be what the markets are doing -- at least for now -- with prices selling off a bit to the 50 day EMA as traders take some profits.


The 7-10 year treasury market is still below the 50 day EMA, despite the rise in yesterday's trade.  The short-term trends are all moving lower -- the 10 and 20 day EMAs are both heading south.  For prices to make a move through the EMAs would require a pretty strong shift in sentiment.


Oil is in the middle of a decent little rally.  After hitting the 75 handle, prices have advanced, moving through the 10 and 20 day EMA, hitting the 50 day EMA and then selling off for a bit and are now trying to advance beyond the 50.  But this rally plays into the return of the "risk on"trade we've seen over the last few weeks.