Can anyone find a credible economic projection showing increased economic activity as a result of the debt deal? This eliminates "think tanks" and hard partisans like John Taylor and Professor Perry. Also -- are they just saying "we'll see increased growth" or are they also printing their assumptions? Without their assumptions their projections are garbage.
- J.P. Morgan: "we continue to believe federal fiscal policy will subtract around 1.5%-points from GDP growth in 2012"
- Tim Duy's "simple model": "0.6 and 0.7 percent, respectively, for the final two quarters of [2011]," and getting worse in 2012.
- Macroadvisers (h/t Brad DeLong): "a modest 0.1 percentage point of GDP growth in FY 2012," with the damage to be done by the Gang of 12 "No Revenooers" to cause death and destruction as Obama prepares to leave for Bachmann-Perry Overdrive (the MA graphic shows about 1/8th of 1%).
- Ryan Avent (on his Twitter feed yesterday): "Assuming no extension of the payroll tax cut or UI benefits, the US is looking at a 2% of GDP effective fiscal tightening over the next year." (NOTE: Later details appear to be that this is basically 2.6% decline from tightening, 0.5% cyclical gain, netting to around 2%. Reference also made to JPMC survey above.)
Please, post them in the comments so I can see their models.
