There's certainly been a lot of bad economic news lately, so it is worth noting that with this morning's initial jobless claims data, the 4 week average of initial claims has broken out of its recent 410,000 - 430,000 average to the downside: 407,750.
This is the lowest average number of claims in 4 years, with the exception of mid-February through mid-April of this year.
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P.S. to Doomers: You're still cherry picking your sources. The Pied Piper of Doom has another copy-and-paste job featuring Krugman's article, "Hope is not a plan".
The Doomers are out in force with statements like, "as we doomers said plenty of times we hoped we were wrong, but we feared we we gonna be right. We were right, damn.........."
So guess which lines from Krugman's column were conveniently omitted from the Doomgasm this morning? If you guessed,
Larry Summers puts the odds [ of renewed recession] at one in three; I might be slightly more optimistic, but the risk is very realyou're right. Krugman sees less than a one in three chance of an actual double-dip.
For all of the bad news (and the debt deal makes it worse), there are very few economic series actually rolling over to the downside, and there are a few important ones breaking out to the upside. More next week.
2 comments:
It seems clear things are worse in Europe, and that they're not going to be able to contain the mess anytime soon. As a result, my hope is that Eurozone mess -> brief market panic -> speculative undershoot on oil prices -> cheap oil to fuel a recovery here starting by Q1.
Until we see further evidence, it looks like the market is possibly entering its first correction since the 2008 crisis. Hardly a harbinger of impending doom, though I'm sure the doomers will enjoy poing out how the Dow dropped almost 3% today and has dropped almost 9% over the last ten sessions.
Stocks were inevitably going to dip in the wake of QEII's end, and yet already there are signs that the current dip is another round of oversell (which would certainly be warranted given the terrible way the debt ceiling was handled).
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