Atrios this morning says that "The forgotten foreclosure crisis [ ] keeps getting worse."
Ummm, no. Yes, foreclosures do constitute a huge problem, and yes I agree that cramdown legislation would be a boon to the economy, but to the contrary, it seems we can stick a fork in the notion that there was going to be a massive second round of foreclosures due to 2005 vintage mortgage re-amortizations coming due:
RealtyTrac reported that on a YoY basis:
filings declined ... nearly 10% [ ] in July. There were 325,229 properties that received a foreclosure filing in July, a 4% increase from May. It also marks the 17th consecutive month that foreclosure activity exceeded 300,000, said James Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac.Here is the updated chart of year over year changes in foreclsoure activity for the last 16 months:
Saccacio added that default notices were down from the previous year for the sixth straight month in July as servicers and lenders have escalated repossessions (REOs) to near-record levels.
In July 97,123 properties received a default notice, a 28% decrease from July 2009 but a 1% increase from the previous month. Default notices are down 32% from the 142,064 peak in April 2009.
| Month | YoY % change | actual foreclosures |
|---|---|---|
| 04/2009 | +32 | 342,038 |
| 05/2009 | +18 | 321,480 |
| 06/2009 | +33 | 336,173 |
| 07/2009 | +32 | 360,149 |
| 08/2009 | +18 | 358,471 |
| 09/2009 | +29 | 343,638 |
| 10/2009 | +19 | 332,292 |
| 11/2009 | +22 | 306,627 |
| 12/2009 | +15 | 349,519 |
| 01/2010 | +15 | 315,716 |
| 02/2010 | +6 | 308,524 |
| 03/2010 | +8 | 367,056 |
| 04/2010 | -2 | 333,837 |
| 05/2010 | +1 | 322,920 |
| 06/2010 | -7 | 313,841 |
| 07/2010 | -10 | 325,229 |
The trend in those numbers is definitely not "getting worse."
Next month (August) marks the peak of when mortgage re-amortizations come due. If the fabled "tsunami" doesn't appear then, we can safely call it a blown prediction, although there may yet be an echo-foreclosure increase due to renewed house prices declines in the next couple of years. Probably this is what RealtyTrac's spokesman, Rick Sharga, is refering to when he states his belief that foreclosure activity probably won't peak until next year.
