Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in April after having risen 0.2 percent in March. The rates of change for both January and March were revised up, but the rate of change for February was revised down; nevertheless, the cumulative change over those months was only slightly lower than previously reported. Manufacturing output climbed 1.0 percent in April for a second consecutive month and was 6.0 percent above its year-earlier level. The increases in manufacturing continued to be broadly based across industries. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines rose 1.4 percent, and the output of utilities decreased 1.3 percent. At 102.3 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial output in April was 5.2 percent above its year-earlier level. The capacity utilization rate for total industry advanced 0.6 percentage point to 73.7 percent, a rate 6.9 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009, but 4.5 percentage points above the rate from a year earlier.
Once again, we have a strong report from the manufacturing sector.
First, let's go to the data:
Both industrial production and capacity utilization continue to improve from their mid-2009 lows.
And the improvements were (again) broad-based:
The output of most major market groups rose in April. The production of consumer goods increased 0.2 percent, the result of higher output of consumer nondurables. The output of consumer durables was unchanged; declines in automotive products and in home electronics offset advances in appliances, furniture, and carpeting and in miscellaneous goods. The production of consumer nondurable goods moved up 0.3 percent, with the output of non-energy nondurables rising 0.3 percent and the output of consumer energy products gaining 0.5 percent. All major categories of consumer non-energy nondurables recorded increases, although most of the gains were small; the exception was paper products, which moved up 1.0 percent. For consumer nondurable energy products, higher fuel production was partly offset by a decrease in residential sales by utilities, which moved down for a third consecutive month.
.....The production index for durable goods advanced 1.1 percent in April; all major categories of durables strengthened with the exception of motor vehicles and parts and aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment. Gains of 2.0 percent or more were recorded for nonmetallic mineral products; primary metals; machinery; and electrical equipment, appliances, and components.
Nondurable manufacturing climbed 1.0 percent in April. The output of petroleum and coal products jumped 3.6 percent, the index for plastics and rubber products expanded 2.7 percent, and the production of paper climbed 2.4 percent. The indexes for textile and product mills, for printing and support, and for chemicals also increased, while the indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products and for apparel and leather were little changed.


3 comments:
What do you make of the L.A. Times report this morning that current growth is being driven by consumer spending in two unreliable sectors that could quickly evaporate: a) the extremely wealthy, who could quickly stop spending due to nervousness w/ Wall Street's recent volatility, and b) others with a wad of cash only because they are delinquent on their home loans and haven't made a payment in some time?
If anything most of the consumer spending has come from pent up demand alone. Nothing in the sentiment numbers suggests people feel great about their situation but they could only go so long without buying the things they need.
The risk for the bulls is that this is 1980. A double dip could be in the cards.
I'd say it is more like 1975. Long bull market behind us, commodity shortage.
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