I've been wondering whether it was possible for a Recession to end officially even if over half a million jobs a week are being lost, as measured by new jobless claims. Much to my surprise, the answer is a resounding "YES".
The table below shows information new jobless claims for every recession beginning in 1970. All numbers are in 1000's (e.g., 336 is 336,000 new jobless claims, the highest point during the 1970 recession). Data shown is the highest week's new jobless claims for each recession, its equivalent adjusting for population growth to 2009, the new jobless claims during the last week of the end of each recession, that data also adjusted for population growth to 2009, and finally the percentage decline off the high number to the number during the last week of every recession.
| Year | High | 2009 equiv. | end | 2009 equiv. | % off High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 336 | 504 | 325 | 488 | (-3%) |
| 1974 | 561 | 800 | 547 | 782 | (-2.3%) |
| 1980 | 629 | 840 | 559 | 728 | (-11%) |
| 1982 | 695 | 860 | 612 | 757 | (-12%) |
| 1991 | 501 | 602 | 501 | 602 | 0% |
| 2001 | 489 | 525 | 447 | 480 | (-3%) |
| 2009 | 659? | 659? | ? | ? | ? |
Note that adjusted for population growth, jobless claims during the 1974, 1980, and 1982 recessions were considerably worse than our present recession. Also note that the biggest percentage decline until the declared end of any prior recession was -12%.
A 12% decline from the April 2009 high of 659,000 jobless claims would be ~580,000. Thus, if we aren't seeing the end of the 2008-2009 recession right now (given yesterday's -565,000 number), it will be the steepest percentage drop in new claims during any recession in the last 40 years.
Sorry that the chart is rather rudimentary, but in light of yesterday morning's data, I wanted to get this bit of information out as soon as possible.
4 comments:
You should change the name of this blog to "Green Shoots". Sadly, it has become very ideological.
Tom
Stop smoking the green shoots, Bonddad, and look at the drop in the U. Michigan consumer sentiment index. This is the kind of LEADING INDICATOR that you say we should rely upon.
You have yet to explain what sector of the battered US economy is going to lead this nation out of recession, and how the necessary reduction of the colossal personal and institutional debt in the USA will proceed in a manner consistent with economic recovery.
The longer you persist in this Pollyanna nonsense, the more ridiculous you look.
It's well within your right to adjust the historic employment for population growth, but why not adjust today's employment numbers in the same way? You might want to consider the possibility that we have much further to go for current unemployment to be as severe as that of past recessions.
After all, isn't this the Great Recession? Doesn't this recession dwarf any that have come since the 30's?
It's well within your right to adjust the historic employment for population growth, but why not adjust today's employment numbers in the same way? You might want to consider the possibility that we have much further to go for current unemployment to be as severe as that of past recessions.
After all, isn't this the Great Recession? Doesn't this recession dwarf any that have come since the 30's?
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