Several people have commented that unemployment data should be coordinated with unemployment exhaustion rates. Fair enough.
The information is from the department of labor. Unfortunately, they use a flashbook format which I can't copy. So here is the link:
http://www.doleta.gov/unemploy/chartbook/chartrpt.cfm
Use data batch number 7.
The information is important for several reason:
1.) Unemployment exhaustion is currently at an all-time high. This is the point people think is important (which it is).
BUT
Coordinate the DOL data with NBER business cycle data found here:
http://wwwdev.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html
Notice that spike in exhaustion rates typically happen at the end of recessions.
That jibes with information found in this post where I note the 4-week moving average is moving lower, the Challenger job cuts report is dropping and the seasonally adjusted mass lay-offs are dropping.
Let me add this: I am not saying it's good that unemployment benefits are ending, nor am I saying anyone who has lost benefits can go to hell. I am not saying that in any way, shape, or form. These people need an extension of benefits.
However what I am saying is this is another data point that indicates we're probably near the end of a recession.
