The trend of job losses was positive until Friday's report -- we had four consecutive months of decreasing losses. That makes Friday's report an outlier.
The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims is still declining (although from high levels)
The Challenger job cuts report is still moving lower and
The rate of seasonally adjusted mass lay-off events and initial claimants is decreasing.
So, so far Friday's report looks like an outlier. Now, if we have a few more reports like that then we have an issue. But not until then.
1 comment:
Bonddad,
Your analysis lately is classic ‘green s shoots”. Based on historic ‘trends’ and ‘patterns’ you project a positive economic picture. However, you do not seem to take into consideration that we are in a “Black Swan” economy. The past trends were a product of a different economic paradigm than the prevailing one. Your analysis is good for day traders who follow the charts. But, there is no way to judge the probability beyond a few days let alone years.
Tom
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