Tuesday, July 7, 2009

More on Umployment

There was more good and bad news in Friday's employment report.

First the good news



The number of people unemployed for less then five weeks is clearly on a downward path. That's good. However


The 5-14 weeks number is still increasing as is


The 15-26 weeks and


The 27 and greater weeks.

Here's what I think is happening. The longer unemployment times are structural issues. For example, construction workers who are going to out of work for some time because of the low level of housing starts etc... But the decrease in the shorter time is a very good development and indicates the longer term unemployment picture may approaching its worst level.