Tuesday, December 16, 2008

So Much for Inflation

From the BLS:

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 2.2 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This decline followed decreases of 2.8 percent in October and 0.4 percent in September. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods dropped 4.3 percent in November after falling 3.9 percent in the prior month, and the crude goods index declined 12.5 percent subsequent to an 18.6-percent decrease in October.


Here's the relevant YOY PPI chart:



Click for a larger image

Also from the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 1.9 percent in November, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The November level of 212.425 (1982-84=100) was 1.1 percent higher than in November 2007.


Here's the relevant year over year chart:




Click for a larger image

When looking at these charts it's important to remember the impact of the CRB index which has been crashing hard:



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This in turn is caused (at least partially) by the rallying dollar:



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Notice how the dollar's rally and the CRB's drop occurred at about the same time.

The bottom line is inflation is no longer an issue. It also means a period of deflation is possible. What fun.