The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $382.9 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 3.9 percent (±0.7%) above January 2007. Total sales for the November 2007 through January 2008 period were up 4.4 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2007 percent change was unrevised from -0.4 percent (±0.4%)*.
Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.7%)* from December 2007 and were 3.8 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 23.0 percent (±2.8%) from January 2007 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 10.6 percent (±2.0%) from last year.
The problem occurs in the details.
So what increased?
Food and Beverage Stores: +.6%
Grocery Stores: +.3%
Health and Personal Care Stores, +.8%
Gas Stations: +2%
Clothing: +1.4%
Autos: +.6%
What does this tell us?
1.) Necessities are increasing.
2.) How much of the food and gas station increase is the result on food a gas inflation?
3.) I have no idea why autos increased. It's especially odd considering:
Economists were surprised by the gain. Car companies reported earlier this month that sales fell to just a 15.3-million annual rate.
What decreased?
Furnitures/home furnishings: -.5%
Sporting Good Stores/Hobby: -1.3%
Building Materials/Gardens: -1.7%
Electronics/Appliance: -1%
Housing still stinks. No duh.
Leisure activity and electronic gizmos. Non-necessities (that's a word now).
The point is the food and gas inflation are behind at least some of the increases. Also, consider this:
However, excluding autos and gas, sales were flat in the month. Read government report.
So, two areas are responsible for those increases. But of those two areas --
1.) Auto sales increased despite auto companies reporting falling sales, and
2.) Gas sales -- while are subject to some pretty serious inflationary pressures -- are responsible for a large part of the gains.
Color me unimpressed.
4 comments:
I bought a car a couple weeks ago, and asked the sales people "How's business?" in light of the credit crunch, housing + stock market collapses. This was in Fontana, California, near the Inland Empire, where there was new housing development going on all around me.
The salesguys replied that business was great. He continued: People apparently are unable to get loans for houses/or are scared off by the market, and so they apparently buy cars instead.
Go figure. Could it be that this phenomenon is so large that it shows up in national statistics?
In January, people shop spending their gift certificates and gift cards. For example, every January I buy the winter clothes for my entire family that I put off buying earlier in the year because they are on sale. I wonder is there a boost in clothing purchases every January?
Gas prices up, so folks fo buy a Prius.
But really, if you're not underwater on the house, there's credit available. We got an equity loan (at 3.5 % rate for six months) for a patio remodel and a "new" car (05 G35)
But we've lived in our house over 20 years and have only one outstanding loan for our son's car, which we haven't paid off only to establish credit for him. And our credit score is 794....
The car market is angling to be the next housing market. I heard on the radio about banks now offering 6- and 7-year loans for car purchases.
And 18-year-olds with no credit were apparently getting approved.
*Shakes head*
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