- by New Deal democrat
My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate.
The establishment side of the report was strong, with most leading indicators improving. But the household side was not just weak, it was negative, with an outright loss of jobs, and a significant increase in the unemployment rate, which turned higher YoY for the first time during this expansion.
Here’s my in depth synopsis.
Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession
These are leading sectors for the economy overall, and help us gauge how much the post-pandemic employment boom is shading towards a downturn. These were mixed:
Wages of non-managerial workers
Aggregate hours and wages:
Other significant data:
As is so often the case, this was a mixed report. The “employment” part was very good, both in the overall number of jobs gained, but also the increase in most leading sectors. Wages, aggregate hours, and aggregate payrolls also gained, the latter sharply. Restaurant jobs are within a month or two of finally exceeding their pre-pandemic peaks. Revisions were positive as well.
But the “household” part of the report was outright negative. Jobs were actually lost, the number of unemployed increased sharply, and the unemployment rate increased sharply as well, turning higher YoY for the first time during this expansion. The number of those who want a job but aren’t actively looking also may have reversed higher. Since March 2022, the household report has only shown a gain of 1.5%, while the establishment report has shown a job increase of 3.1%.
The establishment report was strong; the household report was pre-recessionary.