Monday, April 6, 2020

Lockdowns work II


 - by New Deal democrat

Several weeks ago Italy was the poster child for an out-of-control pandemic. It implemented a strict nationwide lockdown. Here are its daily number of new infections:


Next came Spain, which overtook Italy in the total number of infections. It also implemented a nationwide lockdown. Here are its daily number of new infections:



Within the US, Washington State started a local lockdown almost immediately, and was among the first to start a Statewide lockdown. Here are its daily number of new infections, which have plateaued at about 75 per 1 million per capita:


The State of California as a whole was one of the first three States to go to a Statewide lockdown 16 days ago. Here are its daily number of new infections, which plateaued at about 35 per 1 million population (the spike on the last day is probably due to clearance of a huge backlog in. Testing):


Hawaii, besides lockdowns, being islands, started a ban/quarantine on incoming visitors. Here are its daily number of new infections:


Finally, here is the US as a whole. As more and more State lockdowns take effect, the increase in the number of new cases has been slowing: 


Here is a graph from Kevin Drum showing the daily rate of increase of new infections for the US:


Obviously they aren’t the only answer, because aggressive testing, tracing, and quarantine of those in contact with new cases must be implemented for a successful regimen, but the fact is, lockdowns work. The sooner they are implemented, the sooner the daily number of new infections peak.