- by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (April 21)
As usual, significant developments are in italics. Yesterday was discouraging, as both daily new infections and deaths made new highs. All progress on “test, trace, and quarantine” seems to have stopped, and lockdowns are actively unraveling in some places.
Here are yesterday’s numbers.
Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
- Number: up +37,346 to 825,306 (new daily peak)
- ***Rate of increase: day/day: 5% (vs. 4% for the past week, and 4% on April 18)
The number of new infections made another new peak. The trend had seemed to be a slight decrease in the number of new cases. It is possible yesterday represented an outlier due to increased reporting.
Number of deaths and infections and rate of increase of testing (from COVID Tracking Project)
- ***Number of deaths: Total 39,995, increase of +2,647 day/day (new daily high)
- Rate: increase of 7% day/day vs. average of 7% in past week
- Number of tests: 151,627, up day/day (vs. daily peak of 167,350 on April 18)
- Ratio of positive tests to total: 5.6:1 (vs. daily peak of 6.2:1 on April 18)
US States and population in total lockdown, business lockdown, and partial restrictions - 3 renegades
Below are the States that have not gone to lockdown orders:
- Partial restrictions on business (bars, restaurants): 5 States (IA*, ND^, NE, UT*^, WY^) 9.7 million, 2.9%
- School closure only: 2 States (AR^, SD*) 3.9 million, 1.2%
- Renegades (opening up w/o adequate precautions): (GA, TN, SC):22.5 million, 6.8%
*some local areas under lockdowns
^restrictions on or quarantine of travelers from out of State
US States and population with “test, trace, and quarantine” programs
- East Coast consortium: 7 States: CT, DE, MA, MD, NJ, NY, PA, RI (53.7 million)
- West Coast consortium: 3 States: CA, OR, WA (31.3 million)
- Midwest consortium: 7 States: IL, IN, KY, MI, MN, OH, WI (57.0 million)
- Mid-Atlantic consortium*: 3 Jurisdictions: DC, MD, VA (15.2 million)
- Other areas of regional cooperation per map below:
*informal cooperation
Total population covered by consortiums: 157.2 million)
Summary for April 19
Here’s how we stand:
- The total US population remains under total lockdown is declining from about 95% to about 88% due to the three renegades in the Confederacy (which were also among the very last States to go to lockdowns a few weeks ago)
- Both the number of daily new infections and deaths made new peaks. I seem to recall that one State had a slew of new reports yesterday, so this may be an outlier.
- The trend number of daily tests appears to have improved a little bit to about 150,000-160,000. We are continuing to miss a large percent of new infections. My personal suspicion is that the actual number of total infections in the US is about 5x the official number, or roughly 4.1 million at present.
- 20 States with almost half the US population are either coordinating in making purchases of the necessary equipment, and/or to develop their own “test, trace, and quarantine” plan, but specifics in how to accomplish that have not emerged.
- In general, progress has stalled, as Trump has reverted to his original desire to let the virus “wash over” society. He has found sympathetic ears in much of the Confederacy. Aside from travel restrictions, sending two hospital ships to two cities, and using the Defense Procurement Act once for ventilators and once for nasal swabs, he has done nothing to actually assist in containing the pandemic. Kushner’s ad how group has actively interfered in State and private groups’ actions to obtain necessary supplies.
