Friday, April 24, 2020

Coronavirus dashboard for April 24: NY “crushing the curve,” while rest of US stalls


 - by New Deal democrat

Here is the update through yesterday (April 23) 

As usual, significant developments are in italics. Yesterday was the best day yet for testing (outside of those couple of days where California reported its backlog of negative tests).

Here are yesterday’s numbers.

Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
  • Number: up +26,548 to 869,172 

  • NY - 3 day rolling average down -4,351 from peak, or -45.0%
  • US ex-NY - 3 day rolling average UP +495 since NY peak, or +2.2% 

  • ***Rate of increase: day/day: 3% (vs. 4% for the past week, and 2% on April 22) 

The trend seems to be a slight decrease in the number of new cases. This is almost entirely due to New York.
Number of deaths and infections and rate of increase of testing (from COVID Tracking Project)
  • ***Number of deaths: Total 44,014, increase of +1,911 day/day

  • Rate: increase of 5% day/day vs. average of 5% in past week
  • Number of tests: 192,664 (new daily peak*)
  • Ratio of positive tests to total: 6.1:1 (vs. daily peak of 6.2:1 on April 18*)

 *ex.-Calif clearing its backlog
Summary for April 23

  • The total US population remains under total lockdown has declined from about 95% to about 88% due to the three renegades in the Confederacy (which were also among the very last States to go to lockdowns a few weeks ago)
  • The number of daily new infections has declined slightly, but that is entirely because NY is “crushing the curve”
  • Deaths daily still appear to be increasing slightly. 
  • The trend number of daily tests appears to have improved a little bit to an average of about 160,000. We are continuing to miss a large percent of new infections. My personal suspicion is that the actual number of total infections in the US is about 5x the official number, or roughly 4.1 million at present.
  • In general, outside of New York, progress has stalled. There is no indication that testing, let alone tracing and isolation regimens, are ramping up in any meaningful sense anywhere else. This means that lockdowns will remain in place indefinitely.

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