- by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (April 20)
As usual, significant developments are in italics. Yesterday the slightly positive trends in new infections and deaths continued; while 3 retrograde renegade Trumpist governors decided to “open up” their States, which should lead to a nice big increase in new infections in those States in a couple of weeks.
Here are yesterday’s numbers.
Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
- Number: up +28,174 to 787,960 (vs. 35,354 prior peak on April 17)
- ***Rate of increase: day/day: 4% (vs. 4% for the past week, and 3% on April 18)
The number of new infections made a new peak last Friday. The trend seems to be a slight decrease in the number of new cases.
Number of deaths and infections and rate of increase of testing (from COVID Tracking Project)
- ***Number of deaths: Total 37,321, increase of +1,528 day/day (vs. 2,492 daily high on April 15)
- Rate: increase of 4% day/day vs. average of 7% in past week (new low in rate of increase)
- Number of tests: 137,687, down -29,357 day/day (vs. daily peak of 167,350 on April 18)
- Ratio of positive tests to total: 5.9:1 (vs. daily peak of 6.2:1 on April 18)
US States and population in total lockdown, business lockdown, and partial restrictions - 3 renegades
Below are the States that have not gone to lockdown orders:
- Partial restrictions on business (bars, restaurants): 5 States (IA*, ND^, NE, UT*^, WY^) 9.7 million, 2.9%
- School closure only: 2 States (AR^, SD*) 3.9 million, 1.2%
- Renegades (opening up w/o adequate precautions): (GA, TN, SC):22.5 million, 6.8%
*some local areas under lockdowns
^restrictions on or quarantine of travelers from out of State
US States and population with “test, trace, and quarantine” programs
- East Coast consortium: 7 States: CT, DE, MA, MD, NJ, NY, PA, RI (53.7 million)
- West Coast consortium: 3 States: CA, OR, WA (31.3 million)
- Midwest consortium: 7 States: IL, IN, KY, MI, MN, OH, WI (57.0 million)
- Mid-Atlantic consortium*: 3 Jurisdictions: DC, MD, VA (15.2 million)
*informal cooperation
Total population covered by consortiums: 157.2 million)
Summary for April 19
Here’s how we stand:
- The total US population remains under total lockdown is declining from about 95% to about 88% due to the three renegades in the Confederacy (which were also among the very last States to go to lockdowns a few weeks ago)
- The trend in the number of daily new infections appears to be one of slight decline. Deaths appear to be plateauing. I am looking for a decline of roughly 15%/week in new infections if the peak has indeed been reached, so long as the lockdowns stay in place.
- The trend number of daily tests appears to have improved a little bit to about 160,000, although yesterday was a poor day. We are continuing to miss a large percent of new infections. My personal suspicion is that the actual number of total infections in the US is about 5x the official number, or roughly 3.8 million at present.
- The Trump Administration, after taking no steps for weeks, towards a nationwide “test, trace, and quarantine” plan that will be needed to lift lockdowns, or to assist States to do so, finally gave in to the unified voice of the States’ governors and utilized the Defense Production Act to order the production of the swabs necessary for use in the tests.
- 20 States with almost half the US population are either coordinating in making purchases of the necessary equipment, and/or to develop their own “test, trace, and quarantine” plan, but specifics in how to accomplish that have not emerged.
- There have been small but very well publicized astroturf protests against lockdowns in States with Democratic or non-Trumpist Republican governors.
