In Q2 2013, GDP in volume terms* rose by 0.5%, after a 0.1% step back in Q1.
Households’ consumption expenditure accelerated (+0.4% after -0.1%). Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) decreased again though less sharply than in
Q1 (-0.4% after -1.0%). All in all, final domestic demand (excluding changes in inventories) contributed mainly to GDP acceleration: +0.3 percentage points after -0.2 percentage points. In addition, exports strongly bounced (+2.0% after -0.5%). Due to the acceleration of the total demand, imports also accelerated (+1.7% after +0.1%), so that foreign trade balance had a neutral accounting contribution to GDP growth this quarte (after -0.2 percentage points). Finally, changes in inventories contributed positively to the activity: +0.2 percentage points in Q2, as much as in Q1.
Let's take a look inside the numbers:
This chart shows the percentage chance in GDP and the contributions from various GDP components. First note that overall top-line growth (the red line) has been printing around 0 since the 2H11; last quarters .5% print was the best reading we've seen in over a year and a half.
The table above shows the percentage contributions from various GDP components; I've placed the positive contribution in green and the negative in red. Notice the decent bump in consumer increases (up .4%) and government purchases (up .7%). However, the biggest and most surprising figure is the exports number which increased 2%. This shows that other economies are also growing. In contrast, notice the household investment subtracted 1.7% from overall growth last quarter.
At this point, the standard economic caveat should be stated: this is one quarter of data, and France has had a very difficult road over the last few years, so we need to see several quarters of additional data before arriving at a firm conclusion. However, this month's data is encouraging.
