Monday, November 5, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

All of the major US equity indexes are now in a technical correction.  It began with the IWMs, who's correction started in mid-September.   This was followed by the QQQs at the beginning of October and now the SPYs at the beginning of November.  The technical key is the IWM chart, which is currently at long-term support.  A break of this trend would lead to the 200 day EMA being the next logical price target.  Both the QQQs and SPYs are also at important technical support levels, although theirs are Fib levels.

The above charts are the real key to the equity markets.  All are weekly treasury market charts of various sections of the curve.  While all have broken some upward sloping curve recently, none of sold-off in a major way.  Hence, there is no major risk based cash to flow into the equity markets.  Until we see a big move out of treasuries, the equity markets will have problems moving higher.