Tuesday, November 6, 2012

About the New Found Chinese Manufacturing Growth ....

Last week, the market received some positive news from China:

China’s manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 in October. For the first time in three months, the index reading was higher than the neutral level of 50, indicating that the manufacturing sector in China has expanded again.

However, let's look at the last six months of reports:

The "50" line is the difference between contraction and expansion.  For the last six months, the figure has fluctuated right around a 50 reading, indicating that the manufacturing sector is right between expansion and contraction.

While this report did have some strong internals, the net overall impact/effect is not that great.  In addition, consider the latest report from HSBC:

After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted 49.5 in October, up from 47.9 in September, to signal a full year of monthly deteriorations in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions. However, with the PMI at an eight-month high, the latest data indicated the rate of deterioration was marginal.

Here's their data in chart form:

 In short, this is hardly news to start a new bull run on.  At least, not yet.