Thursday, October 11, 2012
Morning Market Analysis
The weekly chart of the Chinese market (top chart) shows that prices are still consolidating in a year long triangle pattern. The lower chart shows that prices are still struggling to get about resistance at the 35.5 area. This is also where the 200 day EMA is located, another area that has provided upside resistance for prices.
The Brazilian market is moving higher, but at a very subdued rate. This is more of a "traders nibbling at technically low levels" rally than a big build from retail traders. Prices hit the 200 day EMA a few weeks ago and fell back, indicating a lack of overall relative strength. Also note the weak MACD and CMF positions, adding further evidence that this is a weak rally.
The Russian market is somewhat stronger than the Brazilian market. Prices have rallied over the 200 day EMA and have twice fallen back to it for technical support. The current MACD reading is standard for a post-rally sell off, but the weak (read negative) reading of the CMF adds a big question market mark regarding the strength of this rally.