- by New Deal democrat We now know the values for July for 3 of the 4 indicators that the NBER uses to mark economic peaks and troughs.
Nonfarm payrolls were reported up 163,000 for the month. Further, their YoY growth has been acceleratiing slightly a compared with earlier this year.
This morning Industrial production was reported at +0.6. Production made another post-recession high in July, and is now only about 2.5% less than its pre- Great Recession peak, as shown on the graph below:
The YoY growth has decelerated slightly.
Yesterday retail sales were reported up 0.8% for July. With this morning's flat CPI report, we now know that real retail sales were also up 0.8%. (Based on Gallup's spending data, I had thought these would come in poor. I was wrong, but happily so.) This reverses last month's decline, although we are still below the levels set in February and March. These are about 1.7% under their pre- Great Recession peak:
The final coincident indicator, real income, won't be reported for another couple of weeks. Barring downward revisions, however, it seems likely that the economic expansion continued in July.
I'm on Linked In and Twitter (@captivelawyer). Silver Oz's Linked In name is @silver_oz. NDD is a fossil and may be reached by etching a picture in stone on the wall of a cave.
The Bonddad Economic History Project
At the beginning of 2012, I decided to start looking at the actual, statistical history of the US economy starting in 1950. The reason is simple: to find out what really happened. So, when you see title of a post that begins with a year such as 1957, followed by "employment" or "Fed policy: you know what it's for. You can also access the information by typing in BE for Bonddad econ and a year to find information on a particular year.
Here is a link to pages that contain links to all the posts on the years listed.