Friday, July 27, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

The entire US treasury curve is still rallying; there is no sign of any sell-off.  All the prices are still above the EMAs (all of which are rising) and momentum is still bullish.  We're not going to see any major move from the equity markets until money flows out of the safe haven markets.

The entire US corporate curve is in the same situation.  The only different is the short and intermediate charts both have an MACD that has either given or is about to give a sell signal.  This may indicate investor sentiment is changing.  However, once we see a big change in that area, the next move indicating a change of trader's hearts will be a break of the EMAs.

After rallying last week, oil retreated from the 200 day EMA to the 50.  Also note the 10 and 20 day EMA are caught in the 50 day EMA.  Momentum is positive and prices are strengthening,  I'd expect another run at the 200 day EMA fairly soon.