Thursday, July 26, 2012
Morning Market Analysis
The great thing about P&F charts is they take out the noise and show absolute price moves without the daily "up 5 points, down 1 point" reporting. And the above charts show that prices have actually been moderately stable for that time period.
After dropping from 51 to 42 (a move of about 18% from May through June), the copper ETF has been trading in a tight range (from 42-45) for the last month and a half. Prices are still below the 200 day EMA (which is also moving lower) and the MACD has given a sell-signal. However, money is moving into the market and prices are moderately strong. Also note the low volatility. This chart is trying to form a bottom. However, with weak news from a variety of economies continually coming out, it's hard to see how this chart can rally strongly in the near term.
After spiking for a few weeks, the entire grains complex has taken a breather, largely as traders have taken some money off the table. The most likely course of action for these futures is a sideways trade for a bit (2-4 weeks) as trader get their bearings on what the final crop looks like. However, that assumes we won't have any freak weather events -- which is not as unlikely as we would like.