Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

Let's start by taking a long view of the BRICs.

The Brazilian market is near a two year low.  Prices have been trading in a fairly narrow range for the last few months.  Prices are also below all the EMAs (including the 200 week EMA) and the shorter EMAs are all headed lower.  While the MACD may be about to give a but signal, remember that this indicator is still negative and the underlying economy is still weak.

The Russian market is trying to rally from a near two year low.  The MACD has given a buy signal and its trajectory is rising.  In addition, prices are strengthening. However, prices must still move through all the EMAs and overcome a negative CMF.  The first key will be holding a weekly level that's above its current trend line.

The Indian market is in the exact same position as the Russian market.

The Chinese market is not at or near multi-year lows.  Instead, it's resting right at levels established at the end of last year.  However, the EMA picture is very negative -- all are moving lower and the shorter EMAs are below the longer EMAs.  Money is flowing out of the market and prices are moderately strong.

With all of the above charts, note that the Bollinger Band width is declining, indicating volatility is decreasing.  This is usually a precursor to a bottom; we can but hope at this point.

The chart above shows the difference between the 10 year treasury and the effective Federal Funds rate.  Notice there is still a long way to go before we're near a recessionary reading.

The above chart shows the difference between the 10 and 2 year US treasury.  Again, notice that we're above a recessionary reading, although the difference is declining.