Thursday, June 21, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

Corn and wheat (the top and middle charts) are contained.  It won't be until corn breaks 6.60 and wheat breaks 7.00 that we should be concerned.  However, soy beans -- which sold off in May, are trying to move higher.  A move through the 14.50 level would make $15.00 the next logical price target.

The GLD ETF continues to move sideways, finding support around the 153 level.  Remember the conflicting sentiment here: the bulls are looking at QE programs -- along with overall instability -- while the bears are looking at actual inflation numbers. 

The euro is in a strong counter-trend rally right now -- a rally which has been occurring all month.  Prices are now through the 10 and 20 day EMAs and are hitting resistance at the 61.8% Fib level from the May sell-off.  The increasing volume trend is very positive, as it indicates this is more than just a technical rally.  Now the real trick will be keeping price momentum.

The yen -- after rallying from mid-March lows -- is now moving sideways, trading right around the 200 day EMA.  The yen is caught between safe haven buying and a slow economy.