Friday, May 11, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

The good news in the above charts is the SPYs and IWMs are still in a trading range -- although prices are at the low end of each respective range.  In addition, both are still above their respective 200 day EMAs.  However, the MACD on both charts is declining sharply.  That, combined with the terrible shape of other markets around the globe does not bode well for the future.  From a market psychology perspective, it's be great to see these levels stick over the weekend.

Unlike the oil market, the copper market has not seen a massive drop.  Instead, prices are still trading a bit below the 200 day EMA.  However -- again note the terrible MACD position.

Finally, we have the grains complex.  Wheat and corn's respective price is contained.  However, Soybeans are near year long highs.  However, Prices have recently broken trend, making the previous support line resistance.  The reason for the rally is terrible weather in South America greatly hindering the crop growth.  In addition, China is on a buying spree.  So, we get decreased supply and increased demand to get a nice rally.