Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Morning Market Analysis
The French market (via ETF) has fallen through support at the 21 level. However, prices are trading between the 20 and 21 price level. The EMA picture is negative: shorter EMAs are below the longer and prices are below the 200 day EMA. The MACD has given a buy signal, but it is still in negative territory, while the CMF and A/D line are bearish. The only good news in the chart is prices are trading in a range.
While the Spanish market rallied yesterday, it's overall technical picture is terrible. Prices are consolidating near 6-month lows. The shorter EMAs are moving lower, and prices are below all the EMAs. The MACD is also weak.
The Italian market is also trading near 6-month lows, clustering in a pretty tight range. However, the underlying technicals are still bearish -- dropping EMAs, and A/D and CMF lines. While the MACD is rising, it's in negative territory.
The German market is still hanging onto technical ground, trading right around the 38.2% Fib level of the December - March rally. Prices are also trading right around the 200 day EMA level, which is right between bull and bear markets.
The German market is hanging on by a technical thread right now. And, considering the terrible technical condition of its surrounding markets, I wouldn't be surprised to see the DAX start to move lower.
The oil market has taken a major dive in the last three days, with prices moving from the 106 - 97.04 level -- a drop of 8.5%. Also note the sharpness of the drop and the increased volume on the sell-off. This is a classic "get out, NOW!" price chart, indicating traders have very much soured on the oil markets.