The 55 respondents, not all of whom answer every question, raised their growth projections for gross domestic product for nearly every period, including the current quarter. On average, the economists now predict GDP will grow 2.6% in the current quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up from the 2.4% growth they projected in last month's survey. The economy grew 2.5% in the third quarter.The economists now see stronger expansion in the first half of 2011, with growth picking up speed as the year progresses. For the year, they expect GDP will rise 3%. Meanwhile, they have reduced the odds of a double-dip recession to 15%, the lowest average forecast of the year, from 22% in September survey.
The majority of the respondents also say that there is a better chance the economy in 2011 will outperform their forecasts than that it will underperform. Thirty-five economists said the risks to their forecasts are more to the upside; 14 said the risk was to the downside.
The world's leading economies should continue to grow, but at a more stable pace with signs that growth across all of the major economies is steadying, according to a survey of leading indicators released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Monday.The figures point to "expansion" for developed economies as a whole, but the range of movement is limited with the majority of countries surveyed reporting a rise or fall of around 0.1 points, the survey shows.
The Composite Leading Indicator for the OECD's 30 members rose in October to reach 102.6 from 102.5 in September.
"OECD composite leading indicators, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity, suggest a stabilization in the pace of expansion across the OECD," the organization said.
A level above 100 suggests expansion while a figure below suggests contraction, although when the index is below 100 but is rising, the index shows the economy in question is recovering.
These two stories are consistent with my own observations. The slowdown caused by the EU situation last spring appears to be abating. Most indicators are still showing an expansion.
