Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Yesterday's Market
Let's start in the cotton market, which is near multi-year highs.
The chart is classic break from a consolidating area. Prices have moved through resistance (a and b) and have consolidated their gains along the way (c). Also note that prices have printed strong bars after the consolidation. The EMAs are very bullish -- the shorter EMAs are above the longer EMAs and all the EMAs are moving higher (d). Also note that momentum is increasing (e).
The wheat market is cooling off a bit. Prices have fallen from their highs (a), consolidated in a triangle pattern along the 10 day EMA (b) and are now using the 20 day EMA as technical support (c). Prices have broken the long-term uptrend (d) and the MACD has given a sell-signal (e).
Soy beans have risen in sympathy with wheat. Prices are in a clear uptrend (c). Prices have moved through resistance (a) and have consolidated gains (b) using the EMAs as support (b). The EMAs are bullish (d) but the MACD is losing its momentum (e).
The bond market is still in a very strong rally. First, note that prices have moved strongly above the trend line (a), gapping higher and printing strong bars (a).
On the technical side, the EMAs are still very bullish (a) -- all are moving higher and the shorter are above the longer. We're seeing more money flow into the market (b and c) and momentum clearly move higher (d).
Yesterday, prices gapped lower at the open (a), but quickly closed the gap (b). However, prices could maintain momentum and moved lower, using the EMAs are support. They rose again before lunch, but had a hard time moving beyond Friday's close. They dropped twice after lunch (d and e) but rallied into the close on rising volume (f).