"Manufacturing continued to grow during July, but at a slightly slower rate than in June. Employment, supplier deliveries and inventories improved during the month and reduced the impact of a month-over-month deceleration in new orders and production. July marks 12 consecutive months of growth in manufacturing, and indications are that demand is still quite strong in 10 of 18 industries. The prices that manufacturers paid for their inputs were slightly higher but stable, with only a few items on the short supply list."
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Ten of the 18 manufacturing industries are reporting growth in July, in the following order: Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. The four industries reporting contraction in July are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.
Here are anecdotal points from the report:
- "Business in July was strong, the best month since October 2008." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Slow economy has killed sales for new equipment orders." (Machinery)
- "Quoting activity and sales are slow, and backlog is dropping." (Computer & Electronic Products)
- "Business continues to be sluggish and has fallen slightly as the economic ills continue." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
- "Retailers are still unwilling to gamble on inventory." (Printing & Related Support Activities)
Note that four of the five showed a slowing picture.
The number has moved lower for two months now, but is still showing expansion.
3 comments:
I wonder why the textile and appliance industry are even counted in the manufacturing ISM anymore. Production is probably down 90% over the past 10-20 years. For textiles, there is barely anything left at all. Also, like I've said many times before, the ISM can be difficult to determine coming out of a recession, because business picks up for many companies simply because their competitors have gone out of business (and don't take part any longer in the survey).
All statistics numbers make adjustments for companies going out of business etc. That's standard methodology.
While small, textiles and appliances are still part of the landscape and are therefore surveyed.
The sample you attempted to post was purely hypothetical. Do you have actual evidence from the way PMI adjusts the actual data in their survey that their survey is flawed? If so, please present it.
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