After gapping down on Monday (a), prices have continue to move higher (b) out of concern for the euro. What's interesting is the dollar is catching the bid here.
The EMA picture is very strong as all the EMAs are increasing, prices are above all the EMAs and the shorter EMAs are above the longer EMAs. There is plenty of momentum (b) and money is flowing into the security (c).
There are two uptrends in place -- a and b. B is steeper -- which usually can't last as long as a gentler rise. Also note all the price gaps on the dollar (c).
A rising dollar should be hurting commodities -- and it is in the case of some like oil.
Note the prices moved lower (a), through the 200 day EMA. Prices have since been bunched at low levels (b) on very weak candles. The EMA picture is deteriorating (c) with the shorter EMAs (10 and 20 day EMA) moving through the 200 day EMA and the 50 about to move through the 200 day EMA. Momentum is decreasing (d) and money is flowing out of the security. There are several fundamental reasons for this drop. First, oil supplies are increasing and there is increased concern about Europe's ability to continue growing.
However, gold is bucking the trend.
Prices spent most of the first part of the year consolidating in a triangle consolidation pattern (a). After breaking out, prices fell back to test the upper line of the triangle (c). Prices then rose through previous resistance, gapping higher several times (d). Momentum is positive (e) and money is flowing into the security (f).
In the Treasury market, notice that while prices have fallen from last week's spikes, they are still consolidating above the 200 day EMA, indicating traders don't know whether to send this part of the market into a bear market or not. Also notice the IEFs and TLTs are still in an uptrend.
As for the equity markets, let's take a look at the SPYs
Prices dropped to the 200 day EMA (a), but hit upside resistance at the 20 day EMA (b). Also notice the shorter EMAs are either moving sideways or lower, indicating a downward bias.
In yesterday's trading, prices stayed in a pretty tight range for most of the day (a). But they started to fall near closing (b) in increasing volume (c).
Right now, the markets are still concerned about the European situation and the economy as a whole. The large caps stocks -- which should be doing well -- are having a hard time getting above key technical levels. The Treasury market is still trading above the 200 day EMA. gold is rallying and the dollar is catching a safety bid.
