In the week ending Jan. 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 470,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 456,250, an increase of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average of 446,750.
Here is the data:
Remember last week we had a big spike of 36,000 that was caused by "administrative" issues -- claims were filed but not processed in the preceding weeks. Therefore, a large backlog was processed in a short period of time. This week we saw a decrease in the one week numbers but an increase in the 4-week moving average. I would expect the 4-week moving average to increase for the next few weeks, largely as the result of the jump of 36,000 last week. However, so long as we continue to see the decrease continue, the jump will amount to a statistical blip.
2 comments:
The 52 week moving average of nonseasonally adjusted jobless claims peaked in November and it continues its decline this week.If you look at a chart over the last 40 years you would see that this number closely mirrors the unemployment rate (it also leads by
a few months).On a state basis Florida which was one of the lagging states appears to have put in its high last month for its 12 month moving average. I hope this isn't too confusing...
On your chart "New Home Sales" you sat there is a bottom forming. What leads you to that conclusion?
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