Tuesday, November 10, 2009
The long end of the Treasury market has been characterized by a trading range bounded by the lines labeled "A". However, prices are now below that line as (B) and momentum is clearly decreasing (C). The bottom line is momentum is leaving the long-end of the Treasury market. Finally, note the current EMA/price relationship -- all EMAs are moving lower, the shorter EMAs are below the longer EMAs and prices are below all the EMAs.
The shorter part of the curve is also in a downtrend (A). The EMA picture is very bearish: all EMAs are moving lower, the shorter EMAs are below the longer EMAs and prices are below all the EMAs. Finally, momentum is dropping (C).
Fundamentally this also makes sense. First, overall risk appetite has returned; stocks are rising and riskier parts of the credit market are doing well. As a result there is little demand for Treasuries. Then there is the continued increasing of supply which will eventually lower prices. Finally, the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its credit market operations. Bottom line: rates are probably moving higher.
Posted by Unknown at 6:30:00 AM